Forecasting

Jorgen Randers in Albany to Discuss 40 Year Global Forecast

January 25, 2013 Energy

Jorgen Randers is coauthor of the classic, The Limits to Growth (1972) and also of The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (2004). In early February, Randers will be in Albany, discussing his new book, 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. I’ve never heard him speak, but I’ve read the first two […]

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More on Political Moneyball

October 27, 2012 Data

John Cassidy of the New Yorker has a nice explanation of Nate Silver‘s statistical approach to forecasting elections and a balanced view of how much weight to give it. He contrasts that approach with that of David Brooks, New York Times columnist, who describes himself as a pollaholic, but who’s ultimately a skeptic. So here […]

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Managed Long Term Care and the Implications for Public Nursing Homes

June 12, 2012 County Government

As we discussed earlier, New York (and many other states) is moving its Medicaid policy toward managed long-term care. Here’s an excerpt of what we wrote earlier: First, the State finally decided to bring the rest of the Medicaid population into some form of capitated, case-managed care. When the State originally imposed mandatory managed care […]

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North Carolina Needs King Cnut

May 30, 2012 Forecasting

And speaking of science and politics, North Carolina is considering prohibiting, by law, sea level rise. Here’s House Bill 819. And here’s an appropriately snarky, commentary by Scott Huler in Scientific American. According to North Carolina law, I am a billionaire. I have a full-time nanny for my children, I have won the Pulitzer Prize, […]

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Chronically Confident Calculations

May 29, 2012 Budget

In Bias in Government Forecasts, Jeffrey Frankel, an economist at Harvard’s Kennedy School asks the question, “Why do so many countries so often wander far off the path of fiscal responsibility?” In his the full paper at the Oxford Review of Economic Policy Frankel details how national governments (with very rare exceptions) propose consistently optimistic […]

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“Everything Has Changed.” Albany County Gets to Try Again, but the Bar Will be Even Higher

April 6, 2012 County Government

“Everything has changed.” Well, New York’s Public Health & Health Planning Council did not reject the Albany County Nursing Home application. As predicted here yesterday, they deferred it. But the Committee still heard testimony both for and against the application and they discussed it at some length. However in the vote of the Establishment and […]

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We Have a New Candidate for Humpty Dumpty

March 21, 2012 Budget

We said here that it seemed that the leadership of the Albany County Legislature was trying to cover their tracks by confusing everyone. Are they succeeding? Here’s the latest story from the Times Union. We’ll get to the substance later, but at least the State Health Department isn’t buying what Shawn Morse is selling: What’s […]

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A More Accurate & Richer Way to Think about Economic Growth, Budgets, & Other Forecasts

February 9, 2012 Economics

In the past four years, Nate Silver has done more than anyone else I can think of to bring the world of probability and statistics to the realms of politics. Oh, everyone reads polls, but Silver introduced a wider audience to many subtleties and to how to combine multiple polls into richer and more reliable […]

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What Will the Client Transition from Fee-for-Service to Managed Long Term Care Look Like?

December 20, 2011 Forecasting

We’ve already talked a little bit about how New York is undertaking a fundamental change in its Medicaid program. Similar changes are underway in many states. As part of this change, Medicaid clients in long term care are being transitioned from fee-for-service programs to various forms of managed care, including managed long term care. How […]

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GASB Proposal to Require State & Local Governments to do Five Year Cash Flow Projections

December 19, 2011 Cash

Thanks to Lisa Henty, from the Orange County, NC Budget Office, for reminding us that the Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) is seeking public comment on a Preliminary Views proposing that state and local governments prepare financial projections to better present their economic conditions. From the December 6, 2011, GASB press release: The GASB is […]

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