Statistics

Yeah, we know about lying with statistics

October 26, 2018 Analysis

“It is easy to lie with statistics, but it is easier to lie without them.” Frederick Mosteller (1916-2006)

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Jealous?

April 7, 2017 Analysis

Hey, data mavens: Jealous?

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Opening New York’s Budget

January 24, 2013 Budget

We recently congratulated Governor Cuomo for his promoting data transparency in his State of the State message. Little did we know how quickly his administration was moving to actually take concrete steps to make it so. Yesterday’s Budget showed us not only that his commitment was serious, but that the staff of the State Division […]

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Making the Public’s Data Public – Cuomo Edition

January 9, 2013 Data

Well, this seems an especially appropriate topic with which to kick off our 2013 posts. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s 2013 State-of-the-State address’s includes an entire section on using technology to promote “transparency.” Among other things, the Governor has now committed to providing online copies of the State budget in “machine-readable” form. That means you […]

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Political Moneyball and the End of Horserace Punditry?

November 2, 2012 Analysis

The past few days, there’s been a lot of chatter about the contrast between 538’s Nate Silver and subjective observers like Joe Scarborough and their respect electoral analyses. Some of it has gotten pretty ugly, especially about Silver. So Silver offered Scarborough a bet on Twitter. If Silver’s right and Obama wins, Scarborough gives $1,000 […]

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A “Moneyball” Moment in the Presidential Campaign

October 23, 2012 Analysis

With two weeks to go before the election, James Fallows notes the increasing difference between the perspective of the “old pros” who believe that Romney has the momentum that will lead him to defeat Obama and the poll and economics-driven number crunchers like Nate Silver whose current numbers suggest that Obama has the advantage. Fallows […]

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Arithmetically Correct Lie

April 19, 2012 Data

Last week, Mitt Romney repeatedly said that women have lost 92.3% (note the precision of the “.3”) of the jobs since Obama became President. The arithmetic is correct. But there’s no need to be polite and call it “misleading.” It’s a lie, a deliberate attempt to mislead. How ironic for a guy who made so […]

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A More Accurate & Richer Way to Think about Economic Growth, Budgets, & Other Forecasts

February 9, 2012 Economics

In the past four years, Nate Silver has done more than anyone else I can think of to bring the world of probability and statistics to the realms of politics. Oh, everyone reads polls, but Silver introduced a wider audience to many subtleties and to how to combine multiple polls into richer and more reliable […]

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Genesse County, NY Budget History

December 7, 2011 Budget

Going back to 1991, Genesee County, NY has a nice history of its key overall budget figures here. In Firefox, the table runs off the side of the browser page, but it works fine in the latest versions of Chrome and Safari. I didn’t check it with Internet Explorer. In any case, it’s readable. It […]

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How to lie with statistics

July 28, 2011 Statistics

A useful reminder. Eleven ways to lie with statistics.

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