Following up on last month’s post on Albany County’s cash, we renewed our FOIL request.

It’s now been four months and there’s still no response.

The explanation given earlier was that the County doesn’t have the data because they’re in the midst of changing banks. I’ve tried that explanation on a number of public officials with some knowledge of finance and I wish I had videos of their reactions. They’ve been uniformly … how shall we say this … skeptical … as in BS. Such transitions require closer management, not less. Closer management requires more information, not less.

The County Legislature approved the new bank contract September 11, 2011. So it’s now been over nine months that the County has had to transition from one bank to another.

Last month, we noted the possible explanations.

  • They really don’t know how much cash they have.
  • The County Comptroller who has assumed lead responsibility for implementing the new bank relationship, has blocked the County Treasurer’s ability to see the bank accounts necessary to know what the County’s cash position is (much less to manage it). This is a variation on the first option.
  • The County has the data but, for some reason has chosen to ignore the Freedom of Information Law and not to disclose it. Most people that I’ve talked to assume this to be the case and assume it’s because the County’s running close to the edge.

All ugly possibilities.

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Visualize an eclipse.

Now go look at this image.

Same data, different angle. This one’s from space.

Stunning.

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I’m Toast

by John W Rodat on May 21, 2012

In our family, people are happy to walk with me during the summer because they know that I’m the one who will attract all manner of biting insects, particularly mosquitos and black flies (why do we own a house in NH?).

We just had a winter with no winter. I’m doomed.

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For the past couple years, Albany County Legislators have been talking about keeping a much larger share of sales tax revenue for their own purposes and reducing the share passed on to cities, towns and villages. Many of those Legislators have such a proprietary sense of it that they call it “our money,” as if they earned it or something. The County Executive, Dan McCoy still wants a bigger share. However, because they dare not cause a ruckus, it now appears that the desire of multiple legislators for higher office (including some who’ve argued for keeping a bigger share) has frozen things as they currently are … at least for this year.

Jordan Carleo-Evangelist, reports in Share shift a likely no go that it’s unlikely to happen this year.

McCoy still wants the money because once again, Albany County is anticipating a large property tax increase.

In late March, McCoy publicly floated the idea of capping the amount of sales tax revenue the county shares with its cities and towns at 2010 levels, with the county keeping any growth beyond that to help pay for unfunded state mandates that he said are all but certain to force the county to exceed the state’s property tax cap again next year.

The idea, and other variations of it, however, has been wildly unpopular with local leaders, who say they rely on the money to balance their budgets as much as the county does.

One wonders whether McCoy was willing to guarantee local officials the 2010 level so that if revenues fell, he and the County would bear the full cost of the downside.

Of course, if the County keeps a larger share, then cities, towns and villages would likely have to raise their taxes even higher. This would never have saved taxpayers anything; it would have just changed the names of the elected officials who anger voters.

But there are now so many legislators running for the State Legislature and because they don’t have to deal with the County budget until after the election, that they’ve backed off the issue. Perhaps “fled from the issue” is a better description.

While legislature Chairman Shawn Morse said the Democrats did not discuss McCoy’s cap proposal specifically, he said any move that shifts the tax burden from the county to cities and towns is little different than the unfunded state mandated programs the county is battling. “I don’t think there’s a lot of steam for that moving forward,” said Morse, a Cohoes Democrat who launched his campaign for state Senate this month attacking unfunded mandates. “I think the lawmakers have always been very concerned about just shifting the burden. That’s where I’ve been on this thing since day one. I complain about unfunded mandates, and this would be no different.”

In Morse’s case, that rings of revisionist history. Others were more candid.

Majority Leader Frank Commisso was more direct. “There was no support for it,” Commisso, who represents Albany and is running for Assembly, said of changing the distribution formula. “We have to find other ways of tightening our budget.”

But this election season will end and perhaps some of these characters will move on to other jobs. The issue, and the cumulative effect of not dealing with the underlying financial challenges will remain. So expect this issue to be back next year. And when that happens, come back here to look at all the relevant data.

Albany County distributes 40 percent of of what it receives in sales tax revenues to municipalities and that’s the figure that the Legislature has obsessed over. The figures they’ve ignored are ones that show how Albany County gets an unusually high level of sales tax revenue. So the net that remains for the County is still high. Take a look at the attached graphic which shows trend lines for Albany and comparable counties of sales tax revenues per capita after distributions to municipalities. We compared Albany to Broome, Dutchess, Erie, Monroe, Niagara, Oneida, Onondaga, and Orange Counties. These are all upstate New York metropolitan counties, each with some rural areas mixed in.

Sales Tax Revenues per Capita – Upstate Metropolitan Counties – Net of Distributions to Municipalities.pdf

Even after distributions to cities, towns and villages, from 1998 through 2010, Albany County had the highest average per capita sales tax revenue per resident (as well as the highest year).

So even after the election, don’t restart the whining. Don’t try again to pass the burden to somebody else. Clean up your own house.

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The journalist character, Melissa Tregarthen in Justin Cartwright’s, Other People’s Money:

“I am a number,” she writes. “I am a statistic. I am a sacrifice on the altar of the free market. I have no power, except the power of words.”

This is immediately after being given the “chop,” being laid off.

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Deep in the comments following Maureen Dowd’s Dancing with Deriviatives, on the JP Morgan Chase debacle is the following comment by Diana Moses of Arlington, MA

Wasn’t there a theme in 2001: A Space Odyssey about our technological developments escaping our control (I’m thinking about HAL)? I sometimes feel that way not just about Big Banks and other huge financial institutions, but about other systems as well; not that I fear they will become people, even if corporations allegedly have, but because I think we just make things too complex and complicated for systems relying at base on human beings to run and monitor them. I see that in the less dramatic issues I encounter in systems like insurance and health care in my own life. I get the impression that systems are designed mostly with best-case scenarios in mind, and that the technology component amplifies the damage when there turn out to be unexpected glitches in the systems when they interface with real life and flawed human beings in their implementation. The complexity factor has been referenced as a reason we don’t yet understand what happened in this case. This makes the case come across to me as a modern iteration of an ancient pattern of hubris in human affairs.

The reference to HAL is perfect. We need to unplug him.

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Today’s news that JP Morgan Chase had incurred a $2 billion trading loss reminds us again of the risks to the rest of us of organizations that are not only too big to fail, but too big and complex to effectively manage.

Simon Johnson, author, with James Kwak, of White House Burning, The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why it Matters to You puts it in simple terms:

The lessons from JP Morgan’s losses are simple. Such banks have become too large and complex for management to control what is going on. The breakdown in internal governance is profound. The breakdown in external corporate governance is also complete — in any other industry, when faced with large losses incurred in such a haphazard way and under his direct personal supervision, the CEO would resign. No doubt Jamie Dimon will remain in place.

Let’s be explicit about what “external corporate governance” means: regulation. However, conventional regulation will not protect either the economy or society because regulators have even less information and what information they do have is even more delayed than in the organizations they presume to regulate.

At the same time, let’s not obsess about replacing the CEO. The problem of “too big to manage” (TBTM) is that no one could be an effective CEO.

The only effective solution is to reduce the size and perhaps the complexity of organizations that are so interlinked with the economy and society that the economy and society cannot afford to let them fail.

See Johnson’s timely op-ed in the New York Times from just yesterday on the need to reduce the size of the four largest banks.

Lest those organizational systems spin out of control, for them to control themselves, the capability of information structures within those organizational systems – not just information technology – must grow as quickly, if not more quickly than the capability, size and complexity of organizational systems themselves. The bigger, the more complex, the more capable an organization is, the more its information structures must be bigger and capable.

While information capabilities have grown to an extraordinary degree over recent decades, they have still not kept up with the growth in the size and complexity of the largest financial institutions.

When too big to manage meets too big to fail, disaster – or another bailout – is inevitable.

Update 5/11/12 at 9:38 AM
Here’s the Bloomberg story on what’s going on at JP Morgan Chase.

Update 5/11/2012 at 9:56 AM
Also read Heidi Moore’s explanation of what happened at JPM. It’s in the form of a Q&A, it names names, and has some gory details.

Update: 5/11/2012 at 10:37 AM
Suzy Khimm at the Washington Post was on this story a month ago in Who is Wall Street’s Voldemort, and why is he so feared?.

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So right after Moody’s downgraded Rockland County’s rating (a lot), the Republican County Executive Scott Vanderhoef blamed the local Senator, Democrat Sen. David Carlucci because he would not support an increase in the sales tax:

We regret that State Senator Carlucci was unwilling to fight for the financial stability of Rockland County by passing the home rule legislation necessary for Rockland to raise its sales tax.

Of particular note, Carlucci beat Vanderhoef in a recent Senate race. Also of note, New York’s Senate is controlled by Republicans, who are shall we say, disinclined to raise taxes so it’s unlikely that Carlucci would have been successful in any case.

Carlucci’s response:

It’s obvious that the county would rather blame me than be serious about getting at the real problems,” Carlucci told Gannett’s Albany Bureau. Moody’s said “that you can’t balance the budget on such volatile revenue sources, such as sales taxes. Especially when your going to become the sales-tax capital of the state of New York, when we border New Jersey. To assume that those projections are right is just a fallacy, and something I’m not going to be bullied into supporting. They’ve made it very clear, Moody’s, that this county government has really led the county into a financial disaster and the old way is not the right way.

Rockland’s sales tax is 8.375 percent. The State’s share is a standard 4.0 percent. Counties, with State approval piggyback on top of that. Rockland’s 4.375 percent is among the highest in New York. Vanderhoef wanted to raise that even higher.

The stereotypes of Republicans being anti-tax and Democrats being pro-tax are overdone. But this role reversal is mind boggling and Vanderhoef’s argument is pretty damn lame.

And pretty desperate. That’s probably as good an indicator of how deep in trouble Rockland really is. And it’s also probably a good indicator of the attitudes and behavior that got them into trouble.

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Paul Greaves on Twitter on the Moody’s downgrade from A2 to Baa3 of Rockland County, NY:

Fundamental problem with super downgrades like Rockland County – investors buy munis for capital preservation, diversity and stability.

Greaves is right. But where do abrupt downgrades come from? Either something abruptly changed in financial condition of the organization being rated or something that was there well before it was finally noticed.

On at least some key measures Rockland’s been an outlier for a while though. Here we noted the State Comptroller’s critical analysis and commented:

Specific “tells”? Habits of overestimating revenue and inability to deal realistically with their nursing home.

But here we also note from the Comptroller’s report:

The County’s financial condition has deteriorated over a period of several years. In addition to external factors – namely, a significant tax write-off that caused a deficit in the general fund balance in recent years – the budgeting practices of County officials have left the County with a general fund deficit of over $50 million, significant debt, and no comprehensive plan to ensure sufficient recurring revenues to finance recurring expenditures.

Thus, there should not have been a surprise. If there’s anything that the recent financial system meltdown taught us (re-taught us), it’s that the rating agencies are inadequate to the task. Investors looking for capital preservation and stability and relying solely on rating agencies are always going to be surprised. And this bump down by Rockland County is just another piece of evidence.

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It shouldn’t be too hard to figure out where we’ll come down in this fight. With a tagline, “use the damn data,” one should probably assume that we think it’s not only important, it’s essential that we collect valid, reliable data. And it shouldn’t be a surprise that we believe that for social and economic data, the best organizations to gather and manage such data are government agencies.

Evidently, voting to eliminate the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS), there are many Republican members of the House of Representatives that believe otherwise. This is part of a larger pattern of attacks on measuring the American economy and society.

Do public agencies that collect data, share enough of it with the public in forms that can be understood, much less learned from. They do not. But the solution to that is another of our taglines, make the public’s data public. But this is not generally an issue regarding the Census Bureau and not an issue regarding the ACS.

On a related matter, here’s Kevin Drum on the ongoing debate at the New York Times between Krugman and David Brooks in The War Between Data and Storytelling. Drum has a point that, but they need not be mutually exclusive. Nevertheless, one can learn from data without a story, but a story without data is just one data point and probably a biased one at that.

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