Use the Damn Data

Use the Damn Data Newt

March 25, 2012 Data

It might not seem so to some, but compared to how much I babble about politics at home and among friends, I’ve minimized political talk on this site. (That may change later in year.) But I couldn’t resist this piece, Newt Gingrich: Not Great With Numbers by Jesse Singal on Gingrich’s pursuit of the Republican […]

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Moneyball: Maybe it’s the Geek in Me. Maybe Because it Saved Me.

February 25, 2012 Data

Tomorrow night’s the Oscar awards ceremony and I have a favorite. We’re movie goers and usually analyze them pretty carefully. Well, even if I didn’t think it was a good movie, Moneyball would be my sentimental favorite. Fortunately, it is a good movie. But I owe them. Here’s why. Michael Lewis has been a favorite […]

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GASB Proposal to Require State & Local Governments to do Five Year Cash Flow Projections

December 19, 2011 Cash

Thanks to Lisa Henty, from the Orange County, NC Budget Office, for reminding us that the Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) is seeking public comment on a Preliminary Views proposing that state and local governments prepare financial projections to better present their economic conditions. From the December 6, 2011, GASB press release: The GASB is […]

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Kudos to the NYS State Comptroller, but …

December 9, 2011 Budget

My last post, Yes, Rockland County is in Trouble, was devoted to the release by New York’s Comptroller, Tom DiNapoli, of an Audit (PDF) of Rockland’s financial condition. Clearly, the Comptroller and his staff have been watching closely enough to start their audit earlier this year. Good for them. Carefully done audits take time and […]

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Yes, Rockland County is in Trouble

December 9, 2011 Budget

Yesterday, after taking a quick look at the budget numbers and actions for 2012, I asked the question, is Rockland County (NY) in trouble? The answer is yes. This morning, the NYS Comptroller released the following (the emphases are mine): DiNAPOLI: POOR BUDGET PRACTICES HURTING ROCKLAND COUNTY County Has Incurred Large Debt and General Fund […]

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What if Federal Income Tax Rates Were Higher at High Income Levels?

December 6, 2011 Economics

The Tax Policy Center, a joint effort of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution dispenses with the question of how much how much tax revenue is generated at higher levels of tax rates. It also undermines some of the supply-side scripture that high marginal tax rates are counterproductive. The evidence here suggests that the […]

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“Balanced” Budgets are Fine When You Have Plenty of Cash, but Balance May Not be Enough to Prevent a Crash

November 14, 2011 Budget

When I was a young Air Force pilot, one of the greybeards that I flew with counseled me that the most important job of an Aircraft Commander was “managing the margin of error.” Flying close to home, with less than a full load, or in good weather was much different from flying over the Pacific, […]

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Use ALL the Damn Data

March 30, 2011 Economics

Follow the trail here. It’s only barely polite, if that. But the issues are important. The issues are what should our economic policy be and the honesty in data analysis. John Taylor is a professor of Economics at Stanford. In mid-January, he posted an analysis, Higher Investment Best Way to Reduce Unemployment, Recent Experience Shows […]

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More on New York County Finances, and Not Just Nassau

March 21, 2011 Budget

A few days ago, we looked at debt in New York counties (excluding New York City). We found that using several debt measures such as debt per county resident, Nassau County, which is in budgetary trouble, is an outlier. But of course, there are many other things that we might look at and the most […]

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Peanut, Peanut Butter

March 21, 2011 Economics

Too much of economics is pure theory with no data. Take a look at James Hamilton’s commentary at Econobrowser on a paper by Chevalier and Kashyap. The authors actually used grocery store price data. What variability is hidden behind national economic data?

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